New Zealand looms...

The upcomimg test between South Africa and New Zealand at Newlands has all the makings of a classic. With South Africa showing they can win with flair - and guts it out, and the All Blacks coming off their thrashing of the British and Irish Lions, the match could not be over-hyped.

This is a must win for South Africa. They are at home, they are coming off a high, they have shown they can win a close game. If they lose this match, they will embark on an overseas trip with their backs against the wall, with everybody reminding them of their lousy away record and knowing they must win with bonus points on the road to retain their title.

It is natural that Eddie Jones would talk up the standard of the Springbok game. He believes the All Blacks may suffer from overconfidence: "I think we need to see them play against this mob to see where they are up to," Jones said after presiding over consecutive losses to the Springboks on the high veld.

"They've (the All Blacks) definitely got a lot of confidence.

"It's interesting the way they are talking, how confidently they are talking, given they have come off the back of a series against what you'd have to term not particular high standard opposition."

Graham Henry has been particularly aware of the overconfidence of his rugby public - it will be interesting to see if he is more succesful at moderating the confidence of his team. It is always a difficult task to ensure you team is ready for reality rather than create elements of self-doubt.

The Springboks will take heart from the advice of Scott Johnson, who has coached alongside Steve Hansen at Wales and analysed the All Blacks when he assisted the Lions on their recent tour: "You might get them on an off-night, and they scare if they're not scoring points."

"They do scare, because they don't realise that sometimes you have to grind it out to win it."

"If it's a tough game, New Zealand start to doubt themselves."

Clearly New Zealand haven't had too many tough games recently.

It will be difficult to create that kind of pressure at Newlands for a number of reasons:

1. If it is wet, the game starts with 50/50 odds. The Boks are likely to pick Fourie du preez regardless, anticipating heavy underfoot conditions.

2. Kicking accuracy will be paramount. South Africa must dominate possession to avoid having to absorb massive defensive pressure. They will not want to play the ball from their own half, but should their kicking let them down, they face the strongest back three in world rugby running the ball back at them.

3. The chase will be critical. Daniel Carter is the best flyhalf in the game right now. If the plan is to kick it behind the All Blacks, cut down the angles and force a hurried kick into touch, the Boks will have to improve the chasing of the past three matches. It has been apparent that only Bryan Habana is following up. This even after the Boks picked this gameplan in Sydney and admitted they did not adequately pressurise the Aussie back three.

4. Defence, defence, defence. The All Blacks will be prepared for the rush defence and you can expect plenty of switches back inside and a few little grubbers. In addition, they are likely to emphasise Eddie Joans' complaint about the leniency of Paul Honiss' policing of the off-side line to this week's ref. Finally, if the New Zealand loose forwards break tackles, they are likely to put their runners away.

5. Cut down the errors. Typically the side that makes the fewest errors wins close tests - especially in wet weather. The Boks have cut down on the 50/50 passes - they will have to maintain the improved standard. If they knock-on with the line at the mercy, they are likely to lose the match.

6. Maintain the discipline. Juan Smith's petulant trip at a penalty restart could have cost the Boks a yellow card this last week. He and Schalk are likely to start against the All Blacks - they will have to be on their best behaviour.

7. Use the substitutes wisely. The Boks are playing three enormous matches on the trot with, in addition, only a week's break from Sydney.It is likely to be particularly hard on the tight five. It will be too late bringing on replacements with 10 minutes to go. White must make a plan if he brings on a reserve hooker. John Smit was exposed at prop on Saturday.

It promises to be an epic. I'm in a mild panic as I appear to have left getting tickets too late - Newlands is sold out. I'll be pulling every string over the next few days...