New Zealand looms...

The upcomimg test between South Africa and New Zealand at Newlands has all the makings of a classic. With South Africa showing they can win with flair - and guts it out, and the All Blacks coming off their thrashing of the British and Irish Lions, the match could not be over-hyped.

This is a must win for South Africa. They are at home, they are coming off a high, they have shown they can win a close game. If they lose this match, they will embark on an overseas trip with their backs against the wall, with everybody reminding them of their lousy away record and knowing they must win with bonus points on the road to retain their title.

It is natural that Eddie Jones would talk up the standard of the Springbok game. He believes the All Blacks may suffer from overconfidence: "I think we need to see them play against this mob to see where they are up to," Jones said after presiding over consecutive losses to the Springboks on the high veld.

"They've (the All Blacks) definitely got a lot of confidence.

"It's interesting the way they are talking, how confidently they are talking, given they have come off the back of a series against what you'd have to term not particular high standard opposition."

Graham Henry has been particularly aware of the overconfidence of his rugby public - it will be interesting to see if he is more succesful at moderating the confidence of his team. It is always a difficult task to ensure you team is ready for reality rather than create elements of self-doubt.

The Springboks will take heart from the advice of Scott Johnson, who has coached alongside Steve Hansen at Wales and analysed the All Blacks when he assisted the Lions on their recent tour: "You might get them on an off-night, and they scare if they're not scoring points."

"They do scare, because they don't realise that sometimes you have to grind it out to win it."

"If it's a tough game, New Zealand start to doubt themselves."

Clearly New Zealand haven't had too many tough games recently.

It will be difficult to create that kind of pressure at Newlands for a number of reasons:

1. If it is wet, the game starts with 50/50 odds. The Boks are likely to pick Fourie du preez regardless, anticipating heavy underfoot conditions.

2. Kicking accuracy will be paramount. South Africa must dominate possession to avoid having to absorb massive defensive pressure. They will not want to play the ball from their own half, but should their kicking let them down, they face the strongest back three in world rugby running the ball back at them.

3. The chase will be critical. Daniel Carter is the best flyhalf in the game right now. If the plan is to kick it behind the All Blacks, cut down the angles and force a hurried kick into touch, the Boks will have to improve the chasing of the past three matches. It has been apparent that only Bryan Habana is following up. This even after the Boks picked this gameplan in Sydney and admitted they did not adequately pressurise the Aussie back three.

4. Defence, defence, defence. The All Blacks will be prepared for the rush defence and you can expect plenty of switches back inside and a few little grubbers. In addition, they are likely to emphasise Eddie Joans' complaint about the leniency of Paul Honiss' policing of the off-side line to this week's ref. Finally, if the New Zealand loose forwards break tackles, they are likely to put their runners away.

5. Cut down the errors. Typically the side that makes the fewest errors wins close tests - especially in wet weather. The Boks have cut down on the 50/50 passes - they will have to maintain the improved standard. If they knock-on with the line at the mercy, they are likely to lose the match.

6. Maintain the discipline. Juan Smith's petulant trip at a penalty restart could have cost the Boks a yellow card this last week. He and Schalk are likely to start against the All Blacks - they will have to be on their best behaviour.

7. Use the substitutes wisely. The Boks are playing three enormous matches on the trot with, in addition, only a week's break from Sydney.It is likely to be particularly hard on the tight five. It will be too late bringing on replacements with 10 minutes to go. White must make a plan if he brings on a reserve hooker. John Smit was exposed at prop on Saturday.

It promises to be an epic. I'm in a mild panic as I appear to have left getting tickets too late - Newlands is sold out. I'll be pulling every string over the next few days...

It is time to put the statistics right...

Tri-Nations title wins:

New Zealand: 5
Australia: 2
South Africa: 2 (1998 and 2004)

South Africa has:

• Finished at the bottom of the standings five times (consecutively between 1999-2003) in the nine-year history of the tournament.


• Won the least games in the competition - 14 of 37.


• Not won away from home since 1998.

A Classic Test!

Test rugby was once a dour tit-for-tat affair. Today's test was much closer to that mould than the festival rugby we often enjoy in the Southern hemisphere.

It was an exhausting game to watch as the Boks and Wallabies traded blows. Tactical appreciation was far more in evidence than during the Mandela Cup and the ball was kicked far more. But it seemed that the Boks believed they could win and never looked nervous when the Wallabies edged ahead.

It seemed that the Australians had done their homework this time and for some reason remembered that Monty was once suspect under the high ball. Indeed, the first two kicks he recieved were a disaster for the Boks - the first hit Montgomery on the head.

But as the Boks never panicked, neither did Monty and his return to strength seemed as natural as the Boks scoring when required.

The Boks turned it on with a well worked try where first Habana worked his hands above the tackle well, threw the pass to Montgomery who drew his opposition to put Breyton Paulse into space to score. It was typical of the South African fullback this season - he has worked to put his backline into space and kept the ball alive. Today both wings joined him and came off their positions to create attacking opportunities.

Valuable lessons were learnt today. The Boks did not look as well oiled with Fourie du Preez at scrumhalf and neither did the loose forwards look was menacing with the combination of Smith, Van Niekerk and Cronje. The difference was marked when Enrico Januarie and Schalk Burger came on.

If the Boks are going to give Gary Botha some game time, they will have to do better than making do with John Smit at loosehead. His move caused problems in the Bok scrum, allowing the Wallabies to create signficant pressure on the South African put in.

But today was an important match. It was one that the South Africans seemed to control, rather than run away with. Ultimately this is they poise that the Boks will need to demonstrate again if they are going to win the matches overseas - and against the All Blacks.

You know the Wallabies are in trouble...

...when their media start turning on them. Arguably the most parochial media in the world have turned on their own. Today's headline on the Sydney Morning Herald is entitled Wallabies Reach Crisis Point. Greg Growden is baying for blood. Far too often Aussie media ignore their shocking hypocrisy at calling for South Africans to be fined, banned, etc, or calling our players big dumb brutes. But it appears that the thoroughness of their defeat on the 23rd July 2005 has marked the beginning of some introspection. If that didn't do it, then the cover up of Matt Henjack's attack on team mate Lote Tuqiri appears to have done it. Finally, the idiocy of the team bonding exercise at Tank restaurant has embarrassed the Aussies. Aussies are deeply proud people and would have you believe they are all clones of Crocodile Dundee. He, by extension, is merely typical of them.

The difference however is that Croc Dundee's charm was in his self-effacing nature and down to earth character. As is the nature of most Australians. Perhaps this is why South Africans cannot bear it when they assume a pius and accusatory attitude. It does not become them.

Which is why Greg Growden believes that, "Somewhere in the high veld, Springboks coach Jake White, otherwise known as Sideshow Bob, is killing himself with laughter."

Growden believes that the reason for this, is that, "In one of the most lamentable weeks in the history of Australian rugby, the over-pampered, over-paid, over-and-out Wallabies have been accused of harbouring drunks, late-nighters and impetuous fools who need anger management counselling."

White has not said enough this week to be worthy of his Eddie-Joans-given nickname of Sideshow Bob. He has however reminded the Aussies of the 61-22 whipping that they received at Loftus in 1997. Growden recalls this as the match where some Aussies gave up so as to get rid of their coach. Funny, I don't recall that stunning bit of information. But perhaps it my own national bias that inspires me to remember Carel du Plessis' final match as coach where a group of young inspired choices ran the Aussies ragged.

I, for one, am thoroughly enjoying the Aussies recent journey of self discovery.



Perhaps what is more important though, is the Springbok's growing self confidence and their discovery that the Aussies are less than perfect. Now if only they would learn from that as they consider the All Blacks.

Stupid is as stupid does

Think that's what Forrest Gump said.

Wholly appropriate comment for the latest Aussie gaff.

The players had dinner at Tank in Cape Town (awesome restaurant with a R500 000+ marine fish tank). Management asked the players to imagine themselves stranded in the mountains a la the Uruguayan club rugby team whose plane crashed in the Andes in 1972. Several players ate dead teammates' bodies to survive, inspiring the 1993 film Alive. Aussie players were asked to pick a team mate to sacrifice and to detail how they would prepare him.

Now in the first place, I'm sure the Uruguayians would find this exercise insensitive in the extreme.

Second of all, for a bonding exercise, picking a player to sacrifice seems at odds with the idea. Especially since the team roundly (excuse the pun) turned on Matt Dunning - clearly thinking of the pound-for-pound value he offered.

Thirdly, the players seemed to take the exercise to the extremes, with Stephen Larkham writing he would like Drew Mitchell's testicles for dessert. Chris Whitaker's starter was Rocky Elsom's foreskin "fried in butter, garlic, chilli and parsley". Counselling man, counselling. There is a lot of ammunition for Loftus fans who didn't require much anyway. The Keo.co.za Muppits have already described the entire Aussie squad as tail gunners, etc.

But bizarrely, the players left the written exercise on their seats from where it has made its way to the front page of the Cape Times, a component of an entire Argus backpage review of Aussie behavioural gaffs over the last few years, the Keo.co.za site and the Sydney Morning Herald. The latter headlined the Greg Growden article "Now they wany to eat each other".

Given the particularly parochial nature of the Aussie press, good on them for the following graphic they produced (although they appear to have softened the details of exactly what the players said they would have eaten).



Loving it!

Henry: "Tri Nations to test NZ more than Lions"

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Graham Henry believes that the Tri-Nations is the world's premier test of rugby - that includes the best three rugby playing countries.

In a move sure to make Sir Clive foam at the mouth, Henry said his team was "not reading too much into the [Lions] series, which would be a good build up for the Tri-Nations."

He further said, "Then we are going to find out where the deficiencies are and you have got something to coach."

Henry has recently described All Black fans as arrogant for their expectation of always being dead cert winners. He points out they have not won a world cup since 1987.

Thanks Graham. You've given me ammunition for all those pub arguments with over-confident Brits and New Zealanders.

Mallet: All Blacks 15 points better than any other country

Speaking at the Keo Muppit evening, Nick Mallet analysed the Springboks 23rd July 2005 test play by play and followed this up with a compilation of Dan Carter against the Lions.

Mallet had the Carter tape compiled for a session between him and Peter Grant, the new WP flyhalf hope.

It was truly amazing listening to Nick disect the plays and talk about the strengths and weaknesses of the Bok team. It strikes me that Nick has mellowed. He makes more compliments and less criticisms. With the exception of Gaffie du Toit. God help the guy.

His analysis of Carter was a little frightening. He had asked a VT analyst to pick out every single play by Carter from the 2nd Lions vs. All Blacks test and played this back. There must have been 40+ touches / tackles by the All Black half. Of those Carter probably made one error and could have played one touch better. Mainly because of Carter, Mallet reckons the All Blacks are 15 points better than any other side in the world at the moment.

Frankly, looking at the tape isolating Carter's touches I tend to agree. Particularly given the way he plays off other players like Jerry Collins and they off him.

He is a pivot in the true sense of the word.

You were wrong tonight, Jake White

Jake White appeared as a guest on SuperRugby on Kyknet tonight. An irate caller called in and gave Jake abuse for picking Eddie Andrews in the team.

Jake responded by saying that he hoped the caller realised we can never pick another all white team and that this formed a key consideration in the team's make up.

Jake, I believe you were wrong to say this. We all realise that South African rugby must play a key role in transforming South African society and indeed, having black players in the team is essential to attracting more players into the game.

Many idealistic (or even racist) supporters have been saying for years, "Just tell us you picked that player for political reasons and we'll leave you alone."

No they won't Jake. Now they will use your response to support their jaded views of life in post-apartheid South Africa.

But most importantly, what you did was cowardly. Under the constant (and what must be at times close to unbearable) pressure, you ducked and put that pressure on a player who did nothing wrong but give his best. And you just said that wasn't as good as someone he's keeping out of the team could have given. How is he supposed to feel now?

As coach you should of course acknowledge the role that rugby transformation plays in general terms - as you have done. Already this must result in players doubting their abilities. But to outright name a particular selection as a political one will crush a player.

You knew what the lie of the land was when you took this job. Acting as a buffer between politics and the team was part of that role.

You're doing a great job as a coach Jake. But you need to watch what you say more carefully. The talk ahead of the Springboks' matches against Ireland last year and the Autralians in Sydney this year wasn't clever.

But tonight was your worst moment behind the microphone yet.

Should the Springboks line up deeper on attack?

I believe that the Springboks' current attacking alignment needs variation. The alignment is shallow and relies on short passing and switches between the centres.

It is seldom that this results in breaks in initial phases, but instead requires multiple phases of play to draw in defenders and break opposition defensive patterns.

I believe the Springboks should vary their attack more. The All Blacks and New Zealand Super 12 teams set the standard for attacking play, and with their lethal back three, continue to carve holes in opposition defences. When backs receive the ball it is at pace. They run on to, and run off passes.

It is difficult to recognise a "set move" involving the backs these days, and indeed I wonder if they are used. Instead, it seems the backs are expected to employ skills from shadow and touch to break the line. Of course with the scientific defensive approaches employed these days, it is important that backs create opportunities in broken play. But opposition loose forwards have become so adept at slowing the ball now, I think our attacking alignment must seek to create more in phase play.

Well done Monty

Montgomery has quickly become one of the first choices in any Springbok team.

He has a 17 from 18 kicking record over the last three Springbok tests. His career average is heading towards 75%, and he lends maturity and stability to the backline.

John Smit is quoted on keo.co.za as rating Monty as the most valuable member of the Springbok team.

Smit said, "He is the conductor at the back. He brings calmness to the back and his organisation of defence and attack at the back is very good."

It is difficult to believe that there are still those calling for Montgomery's head. The typical complaint is that fans want a more attacking fullback.

Montgomery has been the player to create much of the space on attack over the past year. His roll has changed dramatically since his unbelieveable match against Scotland in 1997. From that match, Montgomery became a marked man. More and more, Montgomery's role has been to join the line to create the overlap or draw defenders.

Further, see the next post about the Springbok attacking alignment. I believe the backs are taking the ball flat footed, making it very difficult for Monty to break the line.

Percy Montgomery Stats from SARugby.co.za

Playing Position: Fullback Montgomery burst onto the international scene in 1997 after being plucked from relative obscurity by then Bok coach Carel du Plessis. The speedster scored a try on his Test debut at centre, but blossomed fully when Nick Mallett moved him to fullback following an injury to Justin Swart on the 1997 tour. He celebrated his 50th Test cap in November 2001 against Italy and is only the third South African to have scored more than 200 points in Test rugby. In his 50 tests, Monty has scored 261 points from 15 tries, 42 conversions, 31 penalties and 3 drop goals. He was a SA Schools representative in 1992-93 before joining Bob Skinstad, Robbie Fleck and Selborne Boome in the highly successful Western Province under-21 team. He made his Super 12 debut for the Stormers in 1996. For the past three seasons, Montgomery has been playing for Newport Gwent Dragons in Wales where he has earned a reputation for creating chance out of nothing and as an accurate and reliable goalkicker. Fullback and record holder for the most points scored by a Springbok, Percy Montgomery will earn his 60th Test cap in the test match between the Springboks and England at Twickenham (Nov'04). Personal Details Full Name Percy Nick Name Monty Surname Montgomery Height 185cm Weight 87kg Birth Date 3/15/1974 Birth City Walvis Bay Marital Status Single Favourite Film American Pie Favourite Music Various Primary School SACS, Cape Town Secondary School SACS, Cape Town Tertiary Education Cape Tech Springbok Career Debut British Isles 1997 Caps 66 Tries 16 Conversions 85 Penalties 75 Drop Goals 4 Test Points 487

Give John Smit a break

Well this is the first post dealing with commentary on SuperRugby on Kyknet tonight.

Really, this show should be called "Bulle ondersteuners stem vir julle Springbok span" (Bulls supporters vote for your Springbok team). Consistently, Bulls supporters have called for John Smit's head.

Now I have had some sympathy with this view, but given current circustance, give the guy a break. He was fantastic on Saturday as both a leader and a player. Anyone who thinks Matfield and Botha could have shone to the extent with a poor hooker's throw knows nothing about the game.

I believed Smit's captaincy was poor in Sydney, where some tactical appreciation would have called for a change in gameplan or, if Jake White is correct, urged better execution. But overall, Jake White is quick to point out his 80% win rate as captain.

I'd like to see Shimange get a full game, and perhaps Gary Botha too. But Smit is performing right now - don't be so one-eyed to deny that.

Was Pretorius the difference?

I recall reading a while back on the impact of poor flyhalf play on a backline. The theory went that the backline takes its attacking and defensive lines from the flyhalf. When the flyhalf messes up his line by moving early or late, drifting across, etc, the entire backline and often the inside channel, struggles to compensate.

I recall reading this as a diagnosis for De Wet Barry and Marius Joubert's poor 2005 Super 12 play. 'Nuff said about the impact of a flyhalf there...

This last Saturday. Andre Pretorius had a stormer and I believe this allowed Jean de Villiers and Jaques Fourie to run the lines they did.

Fans have short memories - think back to the second test against the French on the 25th of June. Jaco van der Westhuizen had a fantastic day then and the backs dictated play.

Happy Birthday Madiba!

Thank you for being the force of reconciliation. Thank you for embracing the Springbok team and realising its potential as a force for transformation.

Thank you for making Saturday at Ellis Park special for us and we hope the Springbok rugby team made it a special day for you!