Thursday, August 18, 2005

A Test the Boks can't win?

This Saturday's test against the Wallabies had all the makings of an epic. The Boks looking to extend their form at home to an away game of coming so tantilisingly close last year. The Wallabies coming back from stinging criticism of almost every aspect of their rugby and management - and a Sydney loss to the All Blacks.

But with injuries ravaging the Aussie line-up - particularly through the loss of the mecurial Stephen Larkham, this Perth test is turning into one of those similar to when a strong nation plays a weaker one: If you lose you're worse than hopeless, if you win in a closely fought match you should have whipped them, and if you whip them, it doesn't really count because they were so weak.
The loss of Stephen Larkham is the real worry for the Australians
Photo: Chris McGrath, Rugbyheaven


We're likely to hear some of that after the Perth test. Does it matter? Probably not.

The Springboks appear to be in a revival phase. Perhaps this signfies the end of a rebuilding phase. A rebuilding phase where players have been developed and moulded. A phase when a gameplan has begun to emerge. A phase where the team has begun to build confidence based on some good home victories and stability. Jake White's squad shows impressive depth. No injury would be absolutley devastating with the exception of Victor Matfield. This is indeed an enviable position.

An away victory against Australia will be critical for the development of the current Springboks' steel. After the Newlands win against the All Blacks a fortnight ago, Jake White mentioned what a big moment it was for some of the squad who had never been in a side that had beaten the All Blacks before. A win against the Aussies away will be another psychological boost to the growing team. It will put them in a confident position going to Dunedin where they will play the All Blacks.

Defeat to the Australians will, on the other hand, be disastrous. Observers will point to the under-strength Wallaby side; the home-away-from-home venue; the failure to capitalise on momentum.

It is a difficult position for the Bok management. They must inspire the Boks with confidence. But guard against overconfidence. They must banish self-doubt. But engender respect for their opponents.

This Wallaby side is fighting for the lives of its coach and captain. It will not be an easy victory.

My prediction? South Africa to win 28 - 21. Which means no bonus points and a lot required in Dunedin to retain the Tri-Nations trophy.

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