Sunday, October 21, 2007

Bokke bo!

So this is a post high on drunken spirit and emotion.

The team hoists President Mbeki high with the Rugby World Cup - Picture: Reuters


It's 03h00 and the end to a fantastic week. The tension was phenomenal. Those who thought this was going to be another 36-0 whipping were always going to be wrong. Finals aren't like that. They draw out the best in people.

Let's start by giving England credit. They were magnificent. To recover from that loss to the Boks in the pool match and come back to make the final beating Australia and France along the way was special. If you doubt the strength and quality of the side, look at their statistics going into this match. The English forwards were immense. Not just at scrum time, but at the breakdown too.

Today was all the better performance by the Boks because the English went into this match with nothing to lose. The pressure was on the Boks. You could see it when they ran onto the field. Their pale faces and steely looks spoke of the unbelievable tension they must have faced going into this match.

Further, this match was not just about winning the World Cup for south Africa. South African life is never that simple. It was about playing for a coach who had a gun to his head. It was about playing for a game that was under pressure to put demographics before victory. It was about giving a nation relief from the assault on its psyche from crime and the difficulty of rebuilding the South African dream.

Hugh Bladen said that Percy Montgomery was too scared to go outside this week in case he got a cold. You could see the pressure of a nation's expectations in his eyes. Francois Steyn's pale face betrayed the pressure on a twenty year old expected to play a faultless game. And Victor Matfield's gaunt look spoke of the pressure on a man expected to win every lineout.

The English ran onto the field with a plan. The often recited criticisms of the Bok back three under the high ball were the bedrock of the English tactic. Together of course with the assault of their pack at scrum time and at ruck ball.

What a response. I said in my pre-match report that the Boks would not turn around a deficient scrum in one week. After looking fragile in the first scrum, weren't they magnificent thereafter? Did you count the wheels on English ball? Did you see the pressure on the English backs? And what of those high balls? Let's face it Monty does not often leap into the sky and claim the high ball in close competition. He was fantastic tonight. And those rucks. The clean out by Bakkies Botha on Phil Vickery in the first half was the stuff of legends.

This was never a match to do more than required to beat the English. If you expected waves of attack with ball to the wings you were always going to be disappointed. If you believe that the disallowed try to the English cost them the game, you failed to see the Boks measuring their effort. Cutting out mistakes was always the first priority. Playing for position the second. And staying ahead on the scoreboard the most important result. If that try had been allowed, I am sure the Boks would have responded.

Once Francois Steyn forgot the script and stepped past three English defenders to put the Boks close. Danie Roussouw finished inches short. It did not matter. Whenever the Boks got the opportunity to kick at poles, Monty never looked like missing. Together with a long range effort from Steyn, those kicks progressively played the English out of the game.

We never got to see the Boks play a set move in the English 22. Never got to see an Eddie Jones inspired strike. That was testimony to the English response. There was not a lot wrong with the Bok line kicking tonight. The competition were just that good.

We also never got to see a Jonny Wilkinson drop goal. We almost saw Matthew Tait score, but not quite. We never got to see Jason Robinson cut through our defenders. The Boks were just that good.

What a victory. What a moment. What country ever hoists their president on their shoulders in the moment of a sporting triumph? To overstate the importance of this win is difficult.

Once my friends and I had finished our catered game function, I took them to a West African Jo'burg club. Along the way, the streets resounded with hooting and people waved flags from their windows. The club is 99% black and a favourite of mine for the incredible vibe and its particular music. I proudly walked in my Springbok jumper. I was hugged three times and engaged in many enthusiastic conversations. There were a number of other Springbok jerseys. This was about OUR team winning the WORLD cup.

Celebrations in Cape Town as the team wins - Picture: Reuters


Naas Botha was right in his commentary at the end of the match. We didn't make enough of the win in the 1995 world cup. We need to take everything we can from this victory. Strike a blow to the political posturing of the sporting demagogues. This victory was not about Afrikaner superiority. It was about uniting a nation behind being the best in the world. Strike a blow against a farcical administration - constructed to preserve the seats of power of past presidents and no longer relevant to the professional game. Strike a blow against the pathetic pace of transformation and take this game to the townships, the platteland and the people. That South Africa needs more Bryan Habanas and JP Pietersens is in no doubt. Given that those particular players cam from perhaps less than 10% of the rugby playing population by race speaks of the opportunity in taking the game to the masses, where the opposite percentages apply, and unleashing our talent on the world.

Finally, strike a blow against the continued interruption of coaching continuity and keep Jake White - Eddie Jones too if we could. This could be the beginning. The glitter to our crown would be to bring home next year's Tri-Nations. We are now the target for everyone that believes we did less than we should have to win this world cup. Yes Jake was wrong and politically naive to threaten the administration in 2006. And yes he needed a mentor / confidant to relieve the pressure piled upon him by South Africa's unique circumstances. I was irritated by his manipulation before a 2006 test match. He was wrong. I was irritated by his spin and defensiveness after poor results. He was wrong. But keeping him was right - is right. I was wrong.

Well done Boks. This was a magnificent performance. There is no need for player ratings. You all scored 10 out of 10 tonight.

A fan celebrates the Bok victory in Pretoria - Picture: Reuters

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Friday, October 19, 2007

Kicking out of hand will decide the World Cup

36-0 will count for nothing tomorrow. At the beginning of the game the scoreboard will state 0-0.

Further, the English have turned their game around since their pool match against South Africa. The combination of their locks with their loosies at ruck time has been magnificent. They have recognised that the Tri-Nations teams commit fewer players to the rucks and have targeted the breakdown. Simon Shaw and Ben Kay have been magnificent at adding vigor to the cleaning. While the Boks have far better fetching skills than the English, this will mean little if support is slow to arrive on attacking ball. With Matfield's looser role, this could be slow poison for the potent South African backs and reduce our attacking advantage to parity.

To emphasise the English strength at the breakdown consider that the English have conceded 63 turnovers. The Boks have conceded 80. The English have won 305 rucks and lost just 19. The Boks have won 207 and lost 24.

South Africa's scrumming issues will not have been solved in a week. Poor quality ball against the wheel will mean the Bok line will be forced to kick more than they would like, or play crash ball. This will also open the game up for Gomarsall. The English scrummie has been sheer class since missing the pool game against the Boks, and Fourie du Preez will have his hands full tomorrow.

South Africa should have a far better time at the line out and this will form the Boks primary attacking platform. The South African's will be expecting to dominate this area and this will encourage the kicking game - traditional test rugby. Good lineout ball in good positions will allow the backs attacking options and this is where Eddie Jones' influence will be seen. The Boks have had limited opportunities to show some Aussie running lines thus far. When they have, they have looked sharp. Expect to see quick ball from the back of the lineout be spread quickly. The backs will make use of dummy runners with Habana and Pietersen coming in on the wrap around. Jaque Fourie revels in running ball on a tight line off his inside player's shoulder. He'll score or switch back on his inside. Francois Steyn must look to offload a fraction earlier if this is to work. As brilliant as Mike Catt has been for the English thus far, he'll be exposed in these plays. Attacking off 13 will put the defensive burden on the men in white's centers and away from the blanket that is Jonny Wilkinson. Simon Tait will be in for a torrid time tomorrow.

Lineout stats are fairly even between the the teams so far. The English have won 58 and lost 9. The Boks have also won 58 but lost only 6.

Final rugby is about minimising mistakes, and tomorrow will be no different. A quick score off turnover ball can suck the wind out of a team given the tight defenses of world cup finalists. There will be a lot of kicking for position. The English will not want Habana pouncing on a loose ball and running the length of the field. And while Tait might be a defensive weakness, he's got the pace to ask questions of South Africa. They will not want to give him any opportunities. Anything within range will be taken tomorrow. Kicking form will be crucial and Montgomery has the record over Wilkinson this tournament. Don't be surprised to see a return to form for the English pivot tomorrow though. He is BMT personified.

Given all of the above, I think tomorrow will be decided by kicking out of hand and handling. If the South African line kicks are poor, it will give the English opportunities to run the ball up and set up phases. If they respect possession and show patience, they will dominate the recycling points. If this happens, Cronje, Matifeld, Botha and Smith will have to turn in a performance like that of 2005 against the All Blacks at Newlands - almost the perfect game. If this happens it will go down to the wire. The English will not create much and it will come down to a few points. Kicking at poles will be paramount. Under that scenario I'd back the Boks to win - 21-18.

If the Boks are pinpoint with their positional kicking, this could be nasty for the English. Given time in the English 22 with good lineout ball, the Boks should run the English line ragged. Given that scenario, I'd favour a big score for a final - 28-9.

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