How to beat the All Blacks
This Saturday has me nervous. Nervous because chokers in the Springboks' position would fail this Saturday. The form side. Momentum - four matches on the trot. The Boks are playing classic test match rugby. Winning would close out the series.
Why am I nervous? Not many of the Boks have been in this position before.
So a change in game plan is not exactly a recommended option. But I believe that at this venue against this side in the context of this match, such a change is required.
I'm not going to talk about the obvious - the Boks must make their first time tackles, keep up their basics/ keep the mistakes to a minimum. And most obviously, look to pressurise MacDonald in his stop-gap role.
The first issue, is that despite the fact that no one has cracked the Springboks yet in this year's Tri-Nations, nobody executed anything like an opposing plan against it - that should change.
Resolution 1: anticipate the All Blacks game in the context of playing the Springboks in this, game 5 of the Tri-Nations, and the Boks confident about their defence. What can we expect? Well some of that depends on the weather. But let's put that aside - wet weather rugby is a known game, and typically the side that executes a 10-man game better and plays for position well, wins.
The Springboks can expect the All Blacks to try to bring their back three into the game. Doing this might create the space in the face of the Boks' rush defence. Look for Rocokoco to be brought through the number 10 channel. Look for the skip pass to Gear. Look for Muiliania running the reverse angle when coming from the back. I think Weepu is gaining in confidence and I wonder if he will make a few breaks. All you can ask is for the loosies to be ready to cover Pretorius in the channel, and for cover on the wing if the backline is "tackling in." First-time tackling is key.
Expect the grubber / chip - no one has properly executed a plan yet against the Boks' rush defence - it will mean that Monty and the blindside wing will have to do a lot of cleaning up. It may also force them to come up on defence, resulting in spaces for kicks for the wings to run onto, turning the Boks around. A Weepu box-kick might also cause problems. This will be the Bok nightmare. I believe they might have to mix it up on defence here. Be prepared to employ the drift defence on quick opposition ball and really punish the flyhalf and centres on slow ball. De Wet and the loosies will be key here. To combat the kick-throughs, Joe van Niekerk must hang back to clean up the short stab, and Monty and the wings must keep to their positions well. A long kick must be received and either punished through planned counter attack or a big punt for ground. Accuracy will be key.
The second issue is possession. If the Boks are going to ease the defensive burden and create more opportunities on attack, they will need to retain more ball. Resolution: continued execution of the basics - no knock-ons, no turnovers and lots of patience. Playing positional rugby will still be required, and the Boks should not be suddenly looking to attack from their own 22. But the Boks have yet to effectively employ the rolling maul - on a heavy field this might be key. Further, reverse passes from Pretorius to a breaking open-side flank and eighth-man might create some holes for the backs to look to run-off them. All of this will encourage multi-phase rugby. Will the Boks basics and patience stand up to a sudden increase in possession?
The third issue is variation on attack. Resolution: Don't get too fancy. Variation can be created by bringing Monty into the line as the attacking runner and not just to create space for the wings - his primary role on attack thus far. Ditto with bringing the blindside wing in on the loop around. De Villiers looks for work like this when he plays wing, so that might help. But I dream of seeing Habana coming round the scrum to join the line. Further, let's see Januarie use some of his pace around the scrum and working with his loosies to punch some holes close in. Ditto for use of the blind-side.
These are not radical changes in plan. Resolution two and three relate to the Bok's play on their own ball and in good field positions.
Issue 1 is major, however. I believe it is where the New Zealanders will ask the most questions. And it requires siginificant composure to execute an intelligent response to new forms of attack. I think the Boks response to a varied New Zealand attack will be key.
I'm calling it close. Dry game - Boks 24 - New Zealand 21. Wet game - Boks 19 - New Zealand 18. Some money on a draw might be good.
Why am I nervous? Not many of the Boks have been in this position before.
So a change in game plan is not exactly a recommended option. But I believe that at this venue against this side in the context of this match, such a change is required.
I'm not going to talk about the obvious - the Boks must make their first time tackles, keep up their basics/ keep the mistakes to a minimum. And most obviously, look to pressurise MacDonald in his stop-gap role.
 |
| Bryan Habana makes a fearsome tackle against the All Blacks at Newlands in this year's Tri-Nations Photo: SA Rugby |
The first issue, is that despite the fact that no one has cracked the Springboks yet in this year's Tri-Nations, nobody executed anything like an opposing plan against it - that should change.
Resolution 1: anticipate the All Blacks game in the context of playing the Springboks in this, game 5 of the Tri-Nations, and the Boks confident about their defence. What can we expect? Well some of that depends on the weather. But let's put that aside - wet weather rugby is a known game, and typically the side that executes a 10-man game better and plays for position well, wins.
The Springboks can expect the All Blacks to try to bring their back three into the game. Doing this might create the space in the face of the Boks' rush defence. Look for Rocokoco to be brought through the number 10 channel. Look for the skip pass to Gear. Look for Muiliania running the reverse angle when coming from the back. I think Weepu is gaining in confidence and I wonder if he will make a few breaks. All you can ask is for the loosies to be ready to cover Pretorius in the channel, and for cover on the wing if the backline is "tackling in." First-time tackling is key.
Expect the grubber / chip - no one has properly executed a plan yet against the Boks' rush defence - it will mean that Monty and the blindside wing will have to do a lot of cleaning up. It may also force them to come up on defence, resulting in spaces for kicks for the wings to run onto, turning the Boks around. A Weepu box-kick might also cause problems. This will be the Bok nightmare. I believe they might have to mix it up on defence here. Be prepared to employ the drift defence on quick opposition ball and really punish the flyhalf and centres on slow ball. De Wet and the loosies will be key here. To combat the kick-throughs, Joe van Niekerk must hang back to clean up the short stab, and Monty and the wings must keep to their positions well. A long kick must be received and either punished through planned counter attack or a big punt for ground. Accuracy will be key.
The second issue is possession. If the Boks are going to ease the defensive burden and create more opportunities on attack, they will need to retain more ball. Resolution: continued execution of the basics - no knock-ons, no turnovers and lots of patience. Playing positional rugby will still be required, and the Boks should not be suddenly looking to attack from their own 22. But the Boks have yet to effectively employ the rolling maul - on a heavy field this might be key. Further, reverse passes from Pretorius to a breaking open-side flank and eighth-man might create some holes for the backs to look to run-off them. All of this will encourage multi-phase rugby. Will the Boks basics and patience stand up to a sudden increase in possession?
The third issue is variation on attack. Resolution: Don't get too fancy. Variation can be created by bringing Monty into the line as the attacking runner and not just to create space for the wings - his primary role on attack thus far. Ditto with bringing the blindside wing in on the loop around. De Villiers looks for work like this when he plays wing, so that might help. But I dream of seeing Habana coming round the scrum to join the line. Further, let's see Januarie use some of his pace around the scrum and working with his loosies to punch some holes close in. Ditto for use of the blind-side.
These are not radical changes in plan. Resolution two and three relate to the Bok's play on their own ball and in good field positions.
Issue 1 is major, however. I believe it is where the New Zealanders will ask the most questions. And it requires siginificant composure to execute an intelligent response to new forms of attack. I think the Boks response to a varied New Zealand attack will be key.
I'm calling it close. Dry game - Boks 24 - New Zealand 21. Wet game - Boks 19 - New Zealand 18. Some money on a draw might be good.
posted at 7:57 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home